A recent study reveals a notable increase in prescriptions of GLP-1 drugs for individuals without diabetes, contrasting with a decline in new prescriptions for those diagnosed with diabetes. The findings, published in the Annals of Internal Medicine, raise alarms regarding potential shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone responsible for regulating blood sugar and reducing appetite, were initially approved for type 2 diabetes treatment. However, their approval for weight loss in 2021 has contributed to the growing demand. Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in meeting this rising demand for GLP-1 medications such as Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions reviewed medical records from 45 million Americans who visited healthcare providers between 2011 and 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes had decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. Conversely, the share of new GLP-1 users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Co-first author Yee Hui Yeo emphasized that this trend indicates healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, marking a significant shift in public health. However, this increasing demand for GLP-1 drugs may lead to medication shortages, raising concerns about maintaining access for diabetes patients.
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, although its national representativeness may vary. Over recent years, GLP-1 medications have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, aiding individuals in losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The surge in sales of these drugs has elevated Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the status of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the heightened demand has made it challenging for some patients to obtain their prescriptions. Both companies have poured billions into expanding their production capacity.
Looking ahead, Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030. They also estimate that approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S.—about 9% of the population—will be using these medications by 2035.