A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine indicates a rising trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs among individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This shift has raised alarms among the study’s authors regarding potential shortages of these crucial treatments.
GLP-1 medications, which mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and suppresses appetite, were initially approved for managing type 2 diabetes. However, following the FDA’s approval of Wegovy for weight loss in 2021, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have struggled to keep pace with the increasing demand for this class of drugs, which includes Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor visit between 2011 and 2023. The findings revealed that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while those without diabetes using these medications rose from 10% to 25%.
Co-first author Yee Hui Yeo emphasized that this trend reflects a growing recognition of the drugs’ effectiveness in treating obesity, representing a significant public health shift. However, it also underscores the urgent need to ensure ongoing access to these treatments for diabetes patients.
The study analyzed data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent national demographics. In recent years, GLP-1 medications have gained popularity for their ability to reduce appetite, reportedly helping users lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales of these drugs have propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the forefront of the pharmaceutical industry, becoming two of the most valuable companies globally. However, this high demand has made it challenging for some patients to fill their prescriptions, prompting both companies to invest billions to enhance their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate of approximately 31.5 million individuals in the U.S. by 2035, representing about 9% of the population.