A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend of GLP-1 drug prescriptions among individuals without diabetes, alongside a decline in new prescriptions for those with diabetes. Researchers caution that this shift could lead to potential shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic hormones that regulate blood sugar and suppress appetite, were initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes. In 2021, the FDA expanded their use by approving the GLP-1 treatment Wegovy for weight loss. Since then, pharmaceutical companies like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have struggled to keep pace with the increasing demand for GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
An analysis conducted by researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. The findings indicate that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while the proportion of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, remarked that this trend reflects a significant public health shift, as more healthcare professionals recognize the benefits of these medications for obesity management. However, Yeo also expressed concern over medication availability for diabetes patients.
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not accurately represent the entire population.
GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity in recent years for their weight loss capabilities, with users reportedly shedding up to 26% of their body weight. The surge in sales has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the forefront of the pharmaceutical industry, becoming some of the most valuable companies in the sector. However, the heightened demand has led to challenges in medication fulfillment for many patients.
Both companies have invested significantly to enhance their production capabilities. Analysts at Morgan Stanley predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with projections indicating that around 31.5 million people in the U.S., or approximately 9% of the population, may adopt these treatments by 2035.