A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a notable shift in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs, showing an increase in the number of non-diabetic patients receiving these medications even as prescriptions for diabetic patients decline.
The authors of the study express concerns regarding potential shortages of these treatments, as the medical community increasingly recognizes the benefits of GLP-1 drugs in managing obesity. These medications, which mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and suppresses appetite, were originally approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, the FDA approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment for weight loss, in 2021, leading to heightened interest in these drugs.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in meeting the surging demand for GLP-1 medications, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic. Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans between 2011 and 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while the share of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, commented on the findings, stating, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are seeing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which is a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the need to ensure that patients with diabetes still have access to these treatments.”
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, though it may not represent the entire population. In recent years, the appetite-suppressing effects of GLP-1 drugs have fueled their popularity, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The rise in sales of these medications has led to Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk becoming some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. Despite their booming business, many patients find it challenging to fill their prescriptions, prompting both companies to invest billions in increasing production capacity. Analysts from Morgan Stanley project that the global market for these drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, estimating that approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S. will adopt these treatments by 2035, accounting for about 9% of the population.