A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes, contrasting with a decline in new prescriptions for those with diabetes. The authors of the study express concern that this shift could lead to potential shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs are designed to mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar levels and curbs appetite. Initially approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) expanded approvals in 2021 to include Wegovy for weight loss.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, leading manufacturers of GLP-1 drugs—which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic—are facing challenges in meeting the escalating demand for their products.
Researchers at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, alongside other institutions, analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited healthcare providers from 2011 to 2023. Their findings reveal that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. Correspondingly, the share of new users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, commented that the data indicates a significant public health shift, as more healthcare providers recognize the benefits of these medications in treating obesity. However, Yeo emphasized the necessity to ensure that diabetic patients still have access to these treatments amid the concerns over medication shortages.
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not represent the entire population accurately.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, reportedly aiding users in losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The surge in sales of these medications has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, high demand has created difficulties for certain patients in obtaining their prescriptions. To address this, both companies have invested significant resources to enhance production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts forecast that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an anticipated uptake of these medications among approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S. by 2035, representing about 9% of the population.