A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine indicates a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes, while prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This shift raises concerns regarding potential shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs function by mimicking hormones that manage blood sugar levels and suppress appetite. Initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded the approval of Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss in 2021. Since then, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in producing sufficient quantities of GLP-1 medications, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to meet increasing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined medical records from 45 million Americans who visited doctors between 2011 and 2023. Their findings revealed that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. Conversely, the share of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that this data indicates a growing recognition among healthcare providers of the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, marking a significant shift in public health. However, it prompts concern about medication availability for diabetes patients.
The research relied on data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent the national landscape. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with some users losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales of these drugs have transformed Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk into leading pharmaceutical companies globally, although the strong demand has made it challenging for some patients to obtain their prescriptions. Both companies have invested billions to increase production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an anticipated adoption rate of about 31.5 million people in the U.S., representing roughly 9% of the population, by 2035.