A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the proportion of individuals without diabetes receiving prescriptions for GLP-1 medications is increasing, while prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This trend raises concerns about potential shortages of these vital treatments.
GLP-1 drugs mimic a hormone that manages blood sugar levels and suppresses appetite. Initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes, their usage expanded in 2021 when the FDA authorized Wegovy for weight loss.
Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are currently facing challenges in meeting the growing demand for GLP-1 drugs, a category that includes Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
The research team from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million American patients who had at least one doctor’s visit from 2011 to 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. In contrast, the share of new GLP-1 users without type 2 diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, noted, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the advantages of these medications for obesity treatment, indicating a significant public health shift.” However, Yeo also expressed concern about ensuring that diabetes patients continue to have access to these treatments amidst rising use for obesity.
The study relied on data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, though it may not fully represent the national landscape.
In recent years, GLP-1 medications have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with some users experiencing weight loss of up to 26%. This surge in demand has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become leading figures in the pharmaceutical industry. However, this demand has also led to difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions, prompting both companies to invest billions in increasing production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million people in the U.S., or about 9% of the population, expected to use these medications by 2035.