A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a notable trend: the proportion of individuals without diabetes receiving prescriptions for GLP-1 drugs is increasing, while new prescriptions for diabetic patients are declining. Researchers caution that this shift could lead to potential shortages of these critical medications.
GLP-1 drugs, initially approved for type 2 diabetes treatment, work by mimicking a hormone that regulates blood sugar and decreases appetite. The FDA expanded their use in 2021 by approving Wegovy for weight loss. Consequently, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, the leading manufacturers of these medications, are facing challenges in keeping up with soaring demand.
A team from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans who visited doctors between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicate that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while the share of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%. Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that this indicates a growing recognition among healthcare providers of these drugs’ benefits for obesity management. However, it raises concerns about ensuring that diabetes patients continue to have access to these therapies.
The study’s data was sourced from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not reflect national trends accurately. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, with reports showing users can lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The surge in sales of these medications has made Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk among the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the high demand has led to difficulties for many patients in obtaining their prescriptions, pushing both firms to invest significantly in increasing production.
Morgan Stanley predicts that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030, expecting about 31.5 million individuals in the U.S. to adopt these treatments by 2035, constituting roughly 9% of the population.