GLP-1 Drug Demand Shifts: Are Diabetics at Risk?

A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a rising trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs among individuals without diabetes, coinciding with a decline in new prescriptions for those with diabetes. The authors of the study express concern that this shift could lead to potential shortages of these essential medications.

GLP-1 drugs function by imitating a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and suppresses appetite. While these medications were originally approved for treating type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded their approval in 2021 to include weight loss treatments, specifically the drug Wegovy.

As a result, both major pharmaceutical companies Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are struggling to keep up with the increasing demand for GLP-1 drugs, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.

Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined medical records from 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor’s visit between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicate that the percentage of new GLP-1 users diagnosed with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023, while the share of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.

“This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for addressing obesity, marking a significant public health shift,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and ensuring that diabetes patients continue to have access to these treatments.”

The study utilized data from healthcare software provider TriNetX, which may not represent the entire national population.

GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity in recent years due to their effective appetite suppression, leading to users losing up to 26% of their body weight.

The booming sales of these medications have positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk as two of the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies, but the surge in demand has created challenges for some patients in filling their prescriptions. Both companies are investing billions to increase production capacity.

Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will soar to $105 billion by 2030. They also expect that approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S., around 9% of the population, will adopt these medications by 2035.

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