A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine indicates a growing trend of GLP-1 drug prescriptions among individuals without diabetes, while the rate of new prescriptions for those with diabetes is declining. The researchers express concern over the potential shortages of these medications as a result.
GLP-1 drugs, which were initially approved for type 2 diabetes treatment, function by mimicking a hormone that manages blood sugar levels and curbs appetite. In 2021, the FDA expanded the approval of the GLP-1 medication Wegovy for weight loss purposes. Following this approval, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in producing sufficient quantities of these drugs—namely Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic—to meet growing demand.
The study, conducted by Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions, analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited doctors between 2011 and 2023. The findings revealed that the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. Conversely, the percentage of new users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, noted that the data reflects a significant shift in healthcare providers recognizing the benefits of these medications in combating obesity. However, this also raises worries about medication shortages and ensuring that diabetic patients continue to have access to these essential treatments.
The research utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent national trends. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained traction for their appetite-suppressing effects, with studies showing potential weight loss of up to 26% among users.
The booming sales of these medications have positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk as leading pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the heightened demand has led to difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies have invested heavily in increasing production capacity for these drugs.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected increase in adoption to around 31.5 million individuals in the U.S.—approximately 9% of the population—by 2035.