A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend of GLP-1 drug prescriptions among individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for diabetic patients are declining. This trend has raised concerns about potential shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and curtail appetite, were originally approved for type 2 diabetes treatment. However, in 2021, Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, gained FDA approval for weight loss.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are now facing production challenges in meeting the increased demand for these medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, along with other institutions, analyzed medical records of approximately 45 million Americans who visited healthcare providers between 2011 and 2023. They discovered that the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023, while the percentage of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
According to Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, this data signifies a shift in healthcare providers’ recognition of these medications’ benefits for obesity treatment. However, it also highlights the risk of medication shortages and the need to ensure continued access for diabetes patients.
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not fully represent national trends.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained fame for their appetite-suppressing effects, enabling users to lose up to 26% of their body weight. Sales of these drugs have significantly boosted the market value of Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, but high demand has made it challenging for some patients to obtain their prescriptions. Both companies have committed billions to enhance production capabilities.
Looking ahead, Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030. They estimate that by 2035, approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S. will adopt these medications, constituting about 9% of the population.