A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a notable increase in the number of people without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 drugs, while new prescriptions for diabetic patients are declining. This trend raises concerns about possible shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and control appetite, were originally approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, the FDA approved Wegovy, a type of GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss in 2021. Consequently, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in meeting the increasing demand for these medications, which include brands like Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited healthcare providers between 2011 and 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023, while new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, emphasized that this shift indicates healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, which poses significant public health implications. However, the rise in prescriptions for non-diabetic patients could lead to medication shortages, jeopardizing access for those with diabetes.
The data employed in the study came from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which might not fully represent the national landscape.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, enabling users to lose as much as 26% of their body weight. The surge in sales has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become two of the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies. However, the high demand has resulted in difficulties for certain patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies have invested significantly in enhancing their production capacities.
Morgan Stanley projects that the global market for these drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with the expectation that approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S., or about 9% of the population, will be utilizing these medications by 2035.