A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine indicates that the percentage of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are on the decline. Researchers warn that this trend could lead to potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes, work by mimicking a hormone that regulates blood sugar and reduces appetite. The FDA granted approval in 2021 for Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment specifically for weight loss.
Since that time, both Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have been struggling to keep up with the demand for these medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
A team from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a healthcare provider between 2011 and 2023. The findings revealed that the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while the share of users without diabetes grew from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, stated, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, marking a significant public health shift. However, it raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the need to ensure access for patients with diabetes.”
The study utilized data from healthcare software company TriNetX, though its representativeness on a national scale is uncertain.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite suppression effects, enabling users to lose as much as 26% of their body weight. The soaring sales of these medications have elevated Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the status of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally, but this high demand has complicated prescription fulfillment for some patients. Both companies have invested billions to increase production.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected 31.5 million users in the U.S. by 2035, constituting about 9% of the population.