The portion of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining, according to a recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine.
The authors of the study express concern that this shift could lead to potential shortages of these treatments. GLP-1 drugs function by imitating a hormone that controls blood sugar levels and curbs appetite. Initially approved for type 2 diabetes management, the FDA later approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss in 2021.
Since that time, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in meeting the growing demand for GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other organizations examined medical records from 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. Their analysis revealed that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. Conversely, the share of new GLP-1 users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
“This data indicates that more healthcare providers recognize the benefits of these medications in treating obesity, marking a significant public health transition,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study. “However, it also raises alarm over potential medication shortages and highlights the importance of ensuring that diabetes patients continue to have access to these therapies.”
The study utilized data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not represent the entire national population.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite suppression effects and the ability to enable users to lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The surging sales of these medications have propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the heightened demand has complicated the process for some patients in filling their prescriptions. Both Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have invested billions to increase their production of these drugs.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 medications could reach $105 billion by 2030. The investment bank also forecasts that by 2035, approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S.—about 9% of the population—will likely be using these drugs.