A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the number of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 drugs is increasing, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. The study raises concerns about potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic hormones that regulate blood sugar and suppress appetite, were initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA authorized the use of Wegovy for weight loss purposes.
Since that time, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in meeting the growing demand for GLP-1 medications, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a healthcare provider between 2011 and 2023. The results showed that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while those without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that the data indicates a growing recognition among healthcare providers regarding the benefits of these medications in treating obesity. This shift could potentially lead to medication shortages, posing a risk to access for diabetes patients.
The study utilized data from TriNetX, although it may not represent the entire population accurately.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their weight-loss side effects, with some users losing up to 26% of their body weight. The skyrocketing sales of these medications have propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the forefront of the pharmaceutical industry. However, the high demand has made it difficult for some patients to obtain their prescriptions, prompting both companies to invest billions in increasing production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030, with the number of users in the U.S. estimated to reach about 31.5 million, or around 9% of the population, by 2035.