A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine indicates an increase in prescriptions of GLP-1 drugs among individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This trend raises concerns about potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs are designed to mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and suppress appetite. Originally approved for type 2 diabetes treatment, the FDA in 2021 also authorized the use of Wegovy, a GLP-1 medication, for weight loss. As a result, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are struggling to keep up with the rising demand for these medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor from 2011 to 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023, while the share of new users without diabetes climbed from 10% to 25%. Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that this shift reflects a greater recognition of the drugs’ benefits for obesity treatment, but it also highlights worries regarding access for patients with diabetes.
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, although its representativeness on a national scale is uncertain. GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity, with users reportedly losing as much as 26% of their body weight due to their appetite-suppressing effects.
As demand for these medications surges, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have become two of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the high demand has resulted in difficulties for some patients in fulfilling their prescriptions. Both companies are investing heavily to enhance production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030. They also anticipate that the adoption of these medications in the U.S. will rise to approximately 31.5 million people, or about 9% of the population, by 2035.