A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a significant increase in the prescription of GLP-1 medications to individuals without diabetes, while prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This trend raises concerns about potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and suppresses appetite, were originally approved for type 2 diabetes treatment. In 2021, the FDA also approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss. Since their introduction for broader use, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in producing enough of these medications to meet the soaring demand.
The research, conducted by experts from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions, analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans from 2011 to 2023. It found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. In contrast, the proportion of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
“This trend indicates that healthcare providers are increasingly recognizing the efficacy of these medications for weight management, marking a significant shift in public health,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. However, Yeo also highlighted concerns regarding medication shortages and the importance of ensuring continued access for diabetes patients.
The study utilized data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not accurately represent the broader population. GLP-1 medications have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The surge in sales of these drugs has significantly elevated Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become two of the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies. However, the high demand has created difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies have invested billions to boost production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030 and estimate that approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S., or about 9% of the population, will adopt these treatments by 2035.