A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend of GLP-1 drug prescriptions among individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This shift raises concerns about potential shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that controls blood sugar and reduces appetite, were initially developed to treat type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss purposes. Following this approval, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in producing sufficient quantities of GLP-1 drugs—such as Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic—to meet the growing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited healthcare providers between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicated that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while the proportion of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which signifies a major public health change,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and emphasizes the necessity of ensuring access to these treatments for diabetes patients.”
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, but this data may not be representative on a national scale. Recently, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The surge in sales of these drugs has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become two of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally, although high demand has created difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. To address these challenges, both companies have invested billions in increasing production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million people in the U.S.—about 9% of the population—expected to adopt these medications by 2035.