A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs among individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This shift raises concerns about potential shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs are designed to mimic a hormone that controls blood sugar levels and reduces appetite. Initially approved for type 2 diabetes treatment, the FDA gave the green light to Wegovy for weight loss in 2021. Since then, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in producing enough GLP-1 medications, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to meet soaring demand.
Researchers at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined medical records from 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor visit from 2011 to 2023. Their findings indicated that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. Concurrently, the proportion of new GLP-1 users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are seeing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which is a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the need to ensure that patients with diabetes still have access to these treatments.”
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, though its representativeness on a national scale may be limited.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users able to lose up to 26% of their body weight. As sales for these drugs have surged, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have become some of the most valuable pharmaceutical firms globally. However, the high demand has complicated the prescription fulfillment process for some patients. Both companies are investing billions to increase production.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030, with expectations that around 31.5 million people in the U.S.—approximately 9% of the population—will adopt these treatments by 2035.