A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals an increasing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. The authors of the study caution that this shift may lead to potential shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs, which were initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes, function by mimicking a hormone that regulates blood sugar and suppresses appetite. The FDA expanded their use in 2021 with the approval of Wegovy for weight loss.
Following this, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in keeping pace with the soaring demand for GLP-1 medications, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, among other institutions, examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who made at least one healthcare visit from 2011 to 2023. Their findings indicated a decline in new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Concurrently, the share of new GLP-1 users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, stated, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are seeing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which is a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the need to ensure that patients with diabetes still have access to these treatments.”
The research utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, although it may not be representative on a national scale.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, with studies showing users can lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The skyrocketing sales of these drugs have significantly increased the market value of Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, positioning them as some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the heightened demand has led to difficulties for certain patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies have committed billions to enhance their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expectation that around 31.5 million people in the U.S., or about 9% of the population, will adopt these medications by 2035.