A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals an increasing number of prescriptions for GLP-1 drugs among individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This trend raises concerns over potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 medications, originally approved for type 2 diabetes management, mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and suppress appetite. In 2021, the FDA also approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss, leading to greater interest in these drugs.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are currently facing challenges in meeting the surging demand for their GLP-1 products, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined medical records from 45 million American patients who visited doctors between 2011 and 2023. They discovered that the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023, while the share of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted the significant public health shift as healthcare providers recognize the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment. However, she emphasized the importance of ensuring access to these drugs for diabetes patients amid rising demand.
The study used data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent national trends.
GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects and their potential to help users lose up to 26% of their body weight. The skyrocketing demand has positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk as two of the most valuable pharmaceutical firms globally, but this high demand has led to difficulties in fulfilling prescriptions for some patients. Both companies have invested significantly to scale up production.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 medications could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million people in the U.S. predicted to adopt these drugs by 2035, which represents about 9% of the population.