A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a rising trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs among individuals without diabetes, while prescriptions for diabetic patients are declining. The authors of the study express concern over the potential for shortages in these treatments.
GLP-1 medications are designed to replicate a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and curb appetite. Initially approved for managing type 2 diabetes, their use expanded in 2021 when the FDA approved Wegovy for weight loss.
Both Novo Nordisk, the maker of Ozempic, and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in scaling up production to meet the growing demand for GLP-1 medications such as Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans between 2011 and 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes has decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% since 2019, while the proportion of new users without the condition increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, noted that this shift indicates a growing recognition among healthcare providers of the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment. However, she also highlighted concerns regarding potential shortages and the necessity for continued access for diabetes patients.
The data utilized in the study came from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not fully represent national trends.
GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, enabling users to shed up to 26% of their body weight. The surging sales of these medications have elevated Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to ranks among the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. Nevertheless, this high demand has created difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions, prompting both companies to invest heavily in increasing production.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected uptake among approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S. by 2035, representing about 9% of the population.