Hurricane Gabrielle, once a powerful Category 4 storm, is currently headed toward the Azores at a reduced strength. On its projected path, Gabrielle is expected to impact the Azores as a Category 1 hurricane early Friday. The National Weather Service has elevated the advisory from a hurricane watch to a hurricane warning for the Azores, highlighting the unusual nature of threats from the west in the region. As of late Wednesday morning, Gabrielle resided approximately 1200 miles west of the Azores with sustained winds slowing to 110 mph, thus downgrading it to a Category 2 hurricane.
The storm is projected to continue its east-northeast trajectory, where it will encounter wind shear and significantly cooler waters that may weaken it further. An upper-atmospheric low pressure system may temporarily extend Gabrielle’s hurricane status. Nonetheless, the hurricane poses a potential threat to southeastern islands of the Azores. Transitioning into a post-tropical cyclone over the Azores, Gabrielle’s winds might still exhibit hurricane strength characteristics.
The waters traversed by Gabrielle were notably warmer than typical, a phenomenon amplified by human-driven climate change, staggering between 1 to 1.5 degrees Celsius higher than usual. Such conditions across the subtropical Atlantic are believed to be increasing the probability of more intense storms. This evolving climate condition has led to a record number of tropical cyclones affecting the Azores, the most recent being Subtropical Storm Patty in November 2024.
In the broader Atlantic basin, the storm season has seen a stark contrast in storm intensities, with only one Category 5 (Erin) and one Category 4 hurricane (Gabrielle) thus far. Meanwhile, another system, termed Invest 93L, is developing in the western tropical Atlantic. While it is expected to follow a path parallel to Gabrielle’s, 93L may edge closer to Bermuda, posing potential risks. With an increasing probability of turning into a tropical depression by Friday, 93L is anticipated to reach hurricane strength.
Meanwhile, another system, identified as Invest 94L, is causing squally weather as it moves across the northeast Caribbean islands. While less organized than 93L, 94L presents prospects of developing into a more formidable system later, depending on its interaction with existing weather patterns.
In a separate incident in Southeast Asia, Typhoon Ragasa is steering towards southern China and Vietnam. It has weakened from its previous Category 5 status but is still causing significant disruption. Approaching China’s southern coast, Ragasa has spurred severe storms, leading to evacuations and infrastructure damage.
In conclusion, the current weather events signify a pattern of increasingly severe storms as purported by climate studies, which may require communities and governments to reinforce preparedness and mitigation strategies.