Mathematician and infectious disease professor Brooke Nichols from Boston University created a model revealing a staggering consequence of the recent funding cuts to USAid by the Department of Government Efficiency, led by Elon Musk. She discovered that a death occurs every three minutes globally as a result of these cuts, with the death toll surpassing 300,000, including more than 200,000 children.
Nichols initiated this data tracker when the Trump administration imposed a 90-day freeze on USAid funding, which has historically provided critical international assistance focused on areas such as food security and infectious disease response across over 120 countries. The budget for USAid was approximately $42 billion in 2023, with over 80% of its funding abruptly slashed, leading to dire consequences for those reliant on these vital services.
In her calculations, Nichols emphasized the immediate impacts on programs dealing with malaria, as well as food and health interventions for children facing preventable deaths from conditions like diarrhea and malnutrition. The world had aimed to eradicate the AIDS pandemic by 2030, but the funding cuts not only jeopardize that goal but also threaten to triple the current death rates associated with this and other preventable conditions.
Despite a waiver granted later for some humanitarian assistance, aid workers indicate that many programs remain suspended. Nichols’s work has been peer-reviewed by colleagues at the HIV Modelling Consortium, affirming the credibility of her findings. She highlights that these deaths are avoidable and presses for public awareness and action, stating, “I want people to see these numbers and feel something, be outraged… and do something about it.”
Nichols believes that a phased reduction in funding could have mitigated the catastrophic impact of these cuts, which she argues is exacerbated by the abrupt nature of the funding withdrawal, leaving no room for emergency planning. The commitment to international aid remains vital, as the World Food Programme reported a projected 40% decrease in funding compared to the previous year, warning of life-threatening repercussions across affected communities.
The narrative surrounding USAid and the cuts made by Musk has sparked discussions among political leaders, with contrasting opinions on the justification and impact of such budget decisions. The numbers generated by Nichols’s model serve as a critical tool in reinforcing the need for continuous humanitarian support and the ethical implications of budgetary decisions that directly affect global health outcomes.