Recent trends show a slowdown in remittance growth, which is a vital economic factor for many families, as international migration pathways become more restrictive. Kishti Sen, a senior economist at ANZ Group specializing in Pacific economies, indicates that reliance on remittances may decrease as destination countries tighten conditions for migrants seeking permanent residency.
Sen warns of potential challenges for consumer demand in Fiji by 2026. He suggests that a stagnation or slight decline in remittances could adversely affect the economy. “We are banking on Fiji having a stronger business investment year, which will be key for job creation,” he stated, stressing that job growth could enhance consumer demand.
Historically, remittances have played a critical role in bolstering Fiji’s economy, particularly after the pandemic caused a dramatic rise from under $500 million to over $1.2 billion. However, Sen raised concerns about the changing migration trends, pointing to a significant 38% decrease in long-term departures to Australia by June 2025, and a remarkable 51% drop from the peak in 2023.
In contrast to these challenges, the Reserve Bank of Fiji reported that personal remittances exceeded $1 billion in the year leading up to September 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.3%. This growth indicates robust remittance inflows, showcasing a resilient economic component even amidst stricter migration policies.
Looking ahead, while the risk of declining remittances remains a concern, Sen expresses optimism regarding the potential for job growth in the private sector to provide a buffer for the economy. The connection between ongoing remittance flows and local employment opportunities will play a crucial role in shaping consumer confidence and overall economic stability in the near future. This resilience in personal remittances, despite global economic fluctuations, offers a positive outlook for sustaining consumer demand in Fiji.