Fiji is facing significant demographic challenges that could impact its economic growth in the long term, according to the World Bank’s recent Fiji Country Economic Memorandum. The report highlights a sharp slowdown in population growth, which has decreased from 0.7 percent between 1991 and 2012 to just 0.09 percent during the period from 2013 to 2019. Notably, fertility rates have fallen from 3.4 to 2.5 births per woman, while high levels of outward migration persist.
The World Bank projects that Fiji’s net migration will continue to be negative through 2050, exacerbating the labor market situation. Although the working-age population, which includes those aged 15-64, has grown, the increase is beginning to slow down. In contrast, the elderly population (65 and older) is expanding at a rate of 2.8 percent annually. This evolving demographic landscape signals an aging population coupled with a shrinking labor base.
Labor force participation has also seen a decline, dropping from 60.9 percent in 1991 to 59.1 percent in 2021. This trend is particularly troubling as it is driven largely by falling participation among men, while women’s labor force participation remains stagnant at around 40 percent, one of the lowest rates in the region. The World Bank stresses that this underutilization of female talent constrains overall economic growth.
To address these critical issues, the report suggests that boosting women’s workforce participation and bridging skills gaps could mitigate the adverse effects of an aging population and bolster Fiji’s long-term economic potential. Additionally, recent insights from similar reports indicate that the dynamics of migration may shift in the future, potentially contributing positively to Fiji’s population and economic landscape by 2026.
The overall outlook is a mix of concern and cautious optimism. While the immediate demographic challenges present significant hurdles, there are opportunities to reverse current trends through targeted policy initiatives aimed at enhancing female participation in the labor force and making educational outcomes more relevant to labor market needs. By fostering a more inclusive and active workforce, Fiji can nurture a stronger economic foundation for its future.