Fiji is grappling with considerable demographic challenges that pose risks to its long-term economic growth, according to the World Bank’s recent Fiji Country Economic Memorandum. The report reveals a notable decline in population growth, decreasing from 0.7 percent between 1991 and 2012 to a mere 0.09 percent from 2013 to 2019. A significant factor in this trend is the reduction in fertility rates, which have fallen from 3.4 to 2.5 births per woman, coupled with persistently high levels of outward migration.
The World Bank forecasts that Fiji’s net migration will remain negative until 2050, further straining the labor market. While the working-age population (aged 15-64) has seen growth, the rate of increase is decelerating. Conversely, the elderly demographic (65 and older) is growing at a rate of 2.8 percent annually, indicating a shift towards an aging population alongside a diminishing labor force.
Labor force participation has also encountered a decline, dipping from 60.9 percent in 1991 to 59.1 percent in 2021. This trend raises concerns, particularly due to a drop in male participation, with female involvement stagnating at around 40 percent—one of the lowest rates in the region. The World Bank highlights that the underutilization of women’s skills represents a significant constraint on overall economic growth.
To tackle these pressing concerns, the report advocates for strategies to enhance women’s workforce participation and address existing skills gaps. Emphasizing women’s roles in the economy could help mitigate the effects of an aging population while reinforcing Fiji’s economic prospects. Encouraging insights from related reports suggest that migration dynamics may shift positively by 2026, potentially benefiting Fiji’s population and economic framework.
Despite the serious demographic challenges ahead, there is cautious optimism for Fiji’s future. By implementing targeted policy initiatives aimed at increasing female labor force participation and aligning educational outcomes with labor market needs, Fiji can cultivate a more inclusive workforce. This proactive approach could lay the groundwork for a more resilient and prosperous economic future.