Fiji is poised to face above-average rainfall and warmer temperatures in the upcoming months, influenced by a weak La Niña event currently affecting weather patterns across the region. The Fiji Climate Outlook for February to July 2026 reports that while a weak La Niña persists in the tropical Pacific Ocean, most global climate models suggest a shift toward ENSO-neutral conditions between February and April 2026.
Specifically, rainfall in the Fiji Group is expected to be above normal for February 2026, although the forecast for Rotuma presents some uncertainty, with equal chances of experiencing below-normal, normal, or above-normal rainfall. As the months progress from February to April, the expectation of normal to above-normal rainfall remains, with a similar outlook extending into the May to July period.
Additionally, the tropical cyclone season may bring one to two cyclones to Fiji, with the potential for tropical disturbances or depressions leading to periods of significantly above-normal rainfall. In terms of temperature, both maximum and minimum readings are anticipated to be higher than the norm throughout February 2026 and likely continuing into the following months.
While ENSO-neutral conditions typically bring stable average rainfall, meteorologists emphasize that local weather systems can still contribute to short-term fluctuations, particularly during the Wet Season. This means that, despite an overarching trend of warmer conditions and increased rainfall, Fijians should remain vigilant about the potential for sudden weather changes.