Fiji is set to experience above-average rainfall and warmer temperatures in the coming months, influenced by a weak La Niña event that is currently impacting weather patterns across the region. The Fiji Climate Outlook for the period from February to July 2026 indicates that while a weak La Niña persists in the tropical Pacific Ocean, most global climate models predict a transition towards ENSO-neutral conditions between February and April 2026.
During February 2026, above-normal rainfall is anticipated for the Fiji Group, although forecasts for Rotuma are less certain, with equal chances of experiencing below-normal, normal, or above-normal rainfall. As the season progresses from February to April, expectations for normal to above-normal rainfall continue, extending into the May to July period.
Furthermore, the tropical cyclone season is expected to bring one to two cyclones to Fiji, along with the possibility of tropical disturbances or depressions that could result in significantly above-normal rainfall during certain periods. In terms of temperature, both maximum and minimum values are projected to exceed the usual levels throughout February 2026 and likely into subsequent months.
While ENSO-neutral conditions generally provide stable average rainfall, meteorologists urge that local weather systems may still lead to short-term changes, especially during the Wet Season. This indicates that, despite an overarching trend of warmer temperatures and increased rainfall, residents of Fiji should stay alert for potential sudden weather shifts.
As Fijians prepare for these anticipated changes, there is a hopeful outlook for enhanced water resources and agricultural benefits that can arise from increased rainfall, emphasizing the importance of preparedness in adapting to the weather patterns ahead.