The 2025 FIDE World Cup has seen a dramatic shift as three top-ten players, along with the 11th seed, were eliminated during Thursday’s tiebreakers in Goa, leaving only five players from the top 20 still in contention. Among the surprising defeats were Indian grandmaster Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu, who was ousted by Daniil Dubov, Vincent Keymer losing to Andrey Esipenko, and Maxime Vachier-Lagrave being defeated by Aleksey Grebnev.
Other notable results included Sam Shankland’s victory over Richard Rapport and Gabriel Sargissian’s win against Awonder Liang, alongside Frederik Svane’s defeat of Shant Sargsyan. In total, the tiebreaks produced six upset victories out of 11 matches, with five higher-rated players – Arjun Erigaisi, Wei Yi, Javokhir Sindarov, Sam Sevian, and Pentala Harikrishna – successfully advancing to the round of 16.
Comparing this year’s results to the 2023 World Cup, where seven of the top 20 participants made it to the round of 16, raises interesting questions about the volatility of early rounds in chess tournaments. In that edition, Magnus Carlsen emerged victorious, while notable players like Praggnanandhaa and Erigaisi, who are currently still in the race, made significant strides despite being outside the top 20.
The defeats suffered by Keymer, Vachier-Lagrave, and Rapport have severely impacted their chances of qualifying for the Candidates Tournament, marking a disappointing turn of events for these seasoned competitors. For Keymer, particularly, this was a chance to qualify for his inaugural Candidates Tournament, and despite his youth and skill, this setback could dim his immediate hopes.
Remaining in contention are Arjun Erigaisi, Wei Yi, Le Quang Liem, Levon Aronian, and Javokhir Sindarov. With only Aronian having previously participated in a Candidates Tournament, at least two new faces will emerge from this World Cup to vie for positions in the prestigious event.
Representatives from various nations are still in the round of 16, including three from the United States, three from FIDE, two from India, two from Uzbekistan, and two from Germany, with one player each from China, Vietnam, Mexico, and Armenia. It’s noteworthy that all three FIDE representatives—Dubov, Esipenko, and Grebnev—advanced during the tiebreaks, although they now find themselves in the same section of the bracket, which means only one can progress to the semifinals.
With the knockout stage heating up, the tournament’s unpredictability adds excitement for chess fans. The remarkable emergence of younger players amidst the tragedies of established stars illuminates the growth and evolution of competitive chess.