Heading out the door? The Outside+ app is available now on iOS for members — download it to get updates and planning tools for the season.
Farmers’ Almanac forecast: chill, snow, repeat
The Farmers’ Almanac — a long-running North American seasonal guide that uses a proprietary formula involving mathematical equations and sunspots — is predicting a winter of “dramatic swings and widespread wintry weather.” While long-range forecasts are inherently uncertain, the Almanac’s historical success rates are often cited in the 50–80% range.
Key takeaways from this year’s forecast
– Northeast: Colder-than-average conditions are expected, with frequent winter storms across New England and into the mid-Atlantic, especially in mountain areas.
– Northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest: “Impressive” snowfall is forecast for the Pacific Northwest, and heavy snow is expected across the northern Rockies.
– Idaho and Northern Washington: Forecasts align with NOAA and OpenSnow projections that, with a neutral or weakening La Niña, these areas could see harsh, cold conditions.
– Midwest, Great Lakes, and North Central states: Typical to above-average snowfall is expected across the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, and states including Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, the Dakotas, and Wyoming.
– Southern U.S.: Lighter snow is predicted for the southern tier of the country, which could negatively affect resorts such as Taos and Arizona Snowbowl.
– Canada: Coastal British Columbia looks to have a fairly typical winter, while the prairie provinces (including Alberta) may face prolonged deep freezes, high winds, and frequent whiteouts or blizzard conditions — potentially a very good year for major resort areas such as the SkiBig3.
How this lines up with other forecasts
NOAA and OpenSnow broadly agree with the Almanac on heavy-snow potential in the northern Rockies, Midwest, and Great Lakes. All three outlets also signal lighter snow for much of the southern U.S. and a generally colder look in parts of the West and Northeast. Forecast timing to watch includes potential cold snaps around mid-January and again in mid-February.
A note on long-range forecasting
Long-range seasonal outlooks synthesize climate patterns (like El Niño/La Niña), historical analogs, and — in the case of the Farmers’ Almanac — proprietary methods that factor in sunspot cycles. Because mountain and storm-track weather depend on many interacting variables, seasonal forecasts should be used for planning and preparation rather than as guarantees. Conditions can and do change as the season approaches.
Practical advice for skiers and winter travelers
– Keep travel plans flexible and monitor updates from multiple sources, including NOAA, OpenSnow, and local resort reports.
– Prepare for both heavy snow and sudden cold snaps — pack layered clothing and winter driving gear.
– Follow resort and road-condition updates before heading to mountain areas, and consider booking refundable or changeable reservations when possible.
Summary
The Farmers’ Almanac is calling for a wintry season with notable snow in the northern Rockies, parts of the Pacific Northwest, the Midwest, Great Lakes, and New England, while southern ski areas may see lighter snowfall. NOAA and OpenSnow show broadly similar patterns, though timing and intensity remain uncertain.
Additional comments and outlook
This forecast should excite many skiers and winter-recreation enthusiasts — especially in the northern Rockies, the Pacific Northwest, and New England — but it’s also a reminder to stay prepared. Use seasonal outlooks to guide planning, not to lock in expectations. Regularly checking short-term forecasts and resort-condition updates will give the most reliable, actionable information as winter approaches.
Hopeful note
If the Almanac and other agencies are on target, many classic ski regions could see an above-average winter, offering plenty of opportunities for powder days and extended season conditions.