In the realm of fantasy football, the chaos of injury reports and last-minute lineup changes can often turn the best plans into a stressful scramble. This week, however, we’re focusing on players that could potentially exceed expectations, while also highlighting those who may not be the best choices for your roster.

We’ll delve into nine key players: four who are solid picks for your lineups and four who should be avoided, with an Outlier of the Week to shake things up.

Let’s kick off with some accountability for last week’s selections. Despite navigating the unpredictability of the NFL, there’s been an uptick in successful picks lately. With Week 16 behind us, the record stands at 4 hits to 5 misses for the week, bringing the overall season record to 73 hits versus 71 misses. As we approach Week 17, sitting just over the .500 mark at 0.506, the decisions ahead will carry significant weight.

When it comes to quarterback choices, Caleb Williams from the Chicago Bears is a strong candidate to consider. Despite a less-than-ideal completion percentage of 57.8% this year, he has amassed impressive yardage with 3,400 passing yards and a total of 26 touchdowns, combining his passing and rushing stats. Notably, Williams has the opportunity to make franchise history by being the first Bears quarterback to reach 4,000 passing yards. With a favorable matchup against a 49ers defense that has struggled recently—allowing multiple touchdowns in their latest outing—Williams is poised to perform well, potentially exceeding his projected QB11 finish this week.

Conversely, Baker Mayfield of Tampa Bay is one to avoid this week. While Mayfield had an impressive start to the season, recent performances have taken a downturn. Over the past several weeks, he has struggled to maintain a passing rhythm, averaging a disappointing 13.3 points per game. Given that he faces a Dolphins defense that recently allowed significant yardage and multiple touchdown passes, it would be prudent to look elsewhere for quarterback options this week.

In the running back department, keep an eye on Tyrone Tracy Jr. from the New York Giants. As the landscape of injuries continues to evolve, players like Tracy are stepping into prime roles at critical times, allowing them to showcase their talent. Meanwhile, it’s essential to gauge the overall performance and health of each player over the last few weeks to determine their reliability.

In an unpredictable season filled with surprises, it’s critical to embrace the creativity that comes with picking players who may not be the obvious choices. As fantasy playoffs approach, smart, savvy decisions can lead to unexpected success. Stay vigilant, trust in the potential of your picks, and enjoy the thrilling ride that is fantasy football!

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