Scoring patterns in fantasy baseball this season are defying the usual July peak, with data through August 15 showing an unusual tilt as August data come in. Typically, scoring tops in July and drifts downward in August; this year looks different, making it important to read the trends carefully as you plan moves for the week ahead.
Key season metrics through the months
– Mar/Apr: 4.34 runs per game, HR% 2.8%, K% 22.1%, BB% 9.0%, BABIP 0.288
– May: 4.32 runs per game, HR% 2.9%, K% 21.7%, BB% 8.3%, BABIP 0.294
– Jun: 4.45 runs per game, HR% 3.1%, K% 21.9%, BB% 8.3%, BABIP 0.291
– Jul: 4.50 runs per game, HR% 3.2%, K% 21.9%, BB% 8.2%, BABIP 0.290
– Aug: 4.61 runs per game, HR% 3.3%, K% 21.9%, BB% 8.3%, BABIP 0.286
What this means for your week-to-week moves
– The overall scoring trend has been edging higher into August, which is atypical and worth watching closely.
– BABIP has been dipping across the board this season, with August showing a continued low, raise-the-question moment: is this a sustained shift or a temporary bump in luck? Most indicators point to it being more luck-related than a structural change, but you should monitor for any BABIP uptick that could shift outcomes quickly.
– The data suggest a moment to be more aggressive with pitching in some formats, driven by a combination of declining scoring volatility and category management needs. However, the August uptick argues for caution if BABIP begins to rise again, as that could tilt the balance back toward hitters and change categories dramatically.
– In practice, use this week to lean into pitchers who can maximize strikeouts and wins while being mindful of potential BABIP-driven swings. If you’re chasing specific categories, stay flexible and ready to adjust as BABIP trends evolve.
Rotations and rankings
– Rotations are drawn from the Probable Pitchers Page, and these are the preliminary rankings for the upcoming week.
– The final ranking set will be released Sunday night, ahead of the Week of August 18-24 in mixed leagues.
Additional context and outlook
– The current pattern underscores the importance of monitoring BABIP alongside overall scoring trends. A continued low BABIP would help pitchers sustain value, while a rebound could shift the balance toward hitters.
– As always, stay tuned for any changes in matchups, injuries, and weather that could influence the weekend slate. The coming updates should clarify whether this August uptick is a short-term blip or part of a broader shift.
Summary takeaway
– This season’s July-to-August trajectory is unusual, with scoring holding steady or increasing into August and BABIP trending lower. Use this period to balance aggressive pitching moves with awareness of potential BABIP shifts, and watch the forthcoming rankings for the Week of August 18-24 to guide early-week decisions.
If you’d like, I can tailor these insights to a specific league format (standard, points, or categories) and propose a short-list of waiver targets or streaming options for the week.