European leaders depart Washington with cautious optimism on security guarantees for Ukraine
European leaders wrapped up a crisis-packed trip to the White House feeling they had steadied the course of diplomacy with President Donald Trump, steering him away from immediate Ukrainian concessions that Moscow has long sought. They left with a clearer sense that Washington could play a pivotal role in a postwar security framework for Ukraine, even as officials stressed that any settlement remains far from settled and that the United States’ exact role was still being worked out.
Trump signaled a shift in tone on security guarantees, rejecting the idea of U.S. combat troops in Ukraine but offering support to European governments that do deploy forces. He also indicated the United States would be prepared to back European security efforts, a stance welcomed by Kyiv and its European allies as a potential counterweight to Russia’s demands.
The talks come as Moscow rejected any role for NATO troops in Ukraine and warned against escalation. Russian officials signaled they were prepared for further talks but stressed that any high-level engagement must be carefully prepared, and Moscow’s veto rights or influence over any agreement remain contentious points.
A framework under discussion would hinge on security guarantees rather than a formal NATO deployment. The plan envisages a “coalition of the willing”—with participants from European powers and other allies—backed by U.S. capabilities in intelligence, satellite surveillance, air power and other key tools. The aim would be to deter renewed aggression and provide Kyiv with credible assurances while negotiations continue.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who participated in the White House meeting, said Europe should play a full role, signaling that the continent’s involvement would extend beyond a purely symbolic one. French President Emmanuel Macron emphasized that while a breakthrough has been reached in terms of American commitment to work with Europe on guarantees, there is still a long road ahead and “the substance” must be clarified. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer pointed to the potential for an “Article 5-like guarantee,” though officials caution that such assurances may not be sufficient on their own.
Kyiv’s backers in Europe warned that any agreement would still require buy-in from all major powers, particularly the United States, and would need to address Ukraine’s core red lines, including how to safeguard its sovereignty and security without legitimizing large-scale territorial concessions. Zelensky’s team remains wary of Russia’s tendency to stall negotiations while maintaining pressure.
Analysts offered a range of cautions. Some argued that real guarantees would be hard to deliver without Moscow’s acceptance of meaningful constraints, while others noted that the very idea of Western troops or security guarantees could provoke Russian resistance or vetoes. The debate over how far Western protection should extend, and what form it should take, reflects the delicate balance European leaders seek between pressuring Moscow and keeping diplomatic channels open.
What to watch next
– Whether the proposed summit between Zelensky and Putin, followed by a trilateral gathering with Trump, materializes within a couple of weeks and what form it takes.
– How the United States defines its role—troop presence, logistical support, intelligence sharing, or other security guarantees—and how that affects European commitments.
– The precise architecture of the coalition of the willing, including which countries contribute what capabilities and how civilian and military assurances are coordinated.
– Kyiv’s domestic reception of any deal and the degree to which security guarantees can withstand Russian pressure.
A potential upside of the talks is that a credible, clearly defined security framework could provide Kyiv with the time and assurances needed to pursue negotiations while deterring further aggression. If a workable balance can be struck between Western guarantees and Moscow’s interests, the path to a durable settlement may become more navigable. However, the path remains fraught with risk, and officials stress that any agreement will hinge on details that are far from settled.
Key takeaways
– Europe seeks a meaningful U.S. role in security guarantees for Ukraine without a formal NATO deployment.
– The plan centers on a coalition approach supported by American capabilities rather than a traditional alliance under NATO.
– Moscow remains opposed to NATO troops in Ukraine and signals caution about the pace and scope of talks.
– Analysts warn that achieving durable guarantees will require careful management of expectations and credible insistence on Ukraine’s sovereignty.
Overall, the conversation marks a notable shift toward structured Western assurances in support of Ukraine, while acknowledging that the road to a comprehensive peace deal remains complex and uncertain.