Ethereum is set to lead the charge this cycle, according to Arthur Hayes, the BitMEX co-founder, who shared his view in an August 21 interview with Ran Neuner. He believes both Ethereum and Solana will rise, but he is explicitly tilted toward ETH for the remainder of the cycle. “Do I believe Solana is going to go up? Absolutely it’s going to go up. Do I believe it’s going to go up more than ETH? I don’t know. Probably not,” Hayes said, adding that on a portfolio basis, ETH should be overweighted.
Ethereum vs. Solana: a race defined by capital and flows
In framing the shift from a Solana‑only narrative to an Ethereum-led trade, Neuner pointed to a wave of catalysts—stablecoins, tokenized assets and high-profile advocates—that have turned ETH into “the darling asset of Wall Street.” Hayes did not dispute the premise. He described the competition as a race increasingly defined by the scale of capital pouring into Ethereum: “ETH is a bigger asset to move, but there’s a lot of money chasing it. So it’s going to be [an] interesting race.” In short, the size of the market and the amount of liquidity chasing ETH are the features, not bugs, driving upside.
Three pillars underpin Hayes’ stance
Hayes says his view rests on three on-record ideas. First, positioning: he is overweight ETH versus SOL on a percentage basis. Second, flows: he expects more money to chase ETH in this phase of the cycle, even as Solana continues to benefit from risk‑on dynamics. Third, trajectory: once ETH breaks out, he sees the potential for outsized gains, describing a target of around $10,000 to $20,000 for ETH by cycle’s end and suggesting that a breakthrough could unleash substantial upside momentum.
Solana isn’t out of the picture
Hayes is not bearish on Solana. He noted he advises Upexi, a Nasdaq-listed company with a Solana-focused treasury, and reiterated his view that SOL will benefit from the same risk-on currents. The practical question, he said, is which chain rises more: “They’re both going to go up. The question is which one goes up more.” Even with Solana’s proximity to the Solana ecosystem, Hayes’ core call remains ETH‑led.
Market context and current price
Neuner summarized the broader narrative shift, emphasizing Ethereum’s Wall Street appeal, with stablecoins, tokenized assets and prominent backers giving ETH a megaphone after a period of Solana-focused chatter. Hayes grounded his case in capital formation and the mechanics of demand, arguing that institutional vehicles and ETH treasury deployments will funnel larger inflows into Ethereum.
At the time of reporting, ETH was trading around $4,285.
What this means for investors
– If Ethereum can sustain a breakout, Hayes argues the upside could be substantial, given the inflows and the scale of capital chasing ETH.
– Solana may rise with broader risk-on sentiment, but Hayes expects ETH to lead in terms of percentage gains.
– Watch for catalysts tied to institutional adoption, stablecoin dynamics and the activity of ETH treasury holders, which could reinforce ETH’s relative outperformance.
Summary
Arthur Hayes sees Ethereum as the key beneficiary of current liquidity and institutional interest, with a credible path to tens of thousands of dollars per ETH by the cycle’s end, while Solana should also rise but likely not as much. A positive takeaway is that both major chains could see gains, supported by continued demand and real-world use cases, though ETH appears set to lead the charge.