Ethereum is currently navigating a consolidation phase after a recent market rebound, maintaining its position above crucial institutional demand zones. This state of equilibrium indicates that the next significant price movement will likely arise from liquidity displacement within its established range.
On the daily chart, Ethereum is trading between two essential zones: an institutional supply area around $4.6K–$4.7K and an institutional demand zone near $3.4K–$3.5K. Following the loss of the channel’s lower trendline support earlier this month, the asset has since retested this trendline from below, confirming it as a resistance level. The analysis suggests that Ethereum is caught in a mid-range equilibrium, with neither buyers nor sellers gaining firm control. The 100-day moving average, which previously acted as a dynamic support, has shifted to become resistance near $4.1K–$4.2K, while the 200-day moving average at approximately $3.1K stands as the final line of defense.
As long as Ethereum maintains its price above the $3.4K demand zone, the macro trend remains positive. However, a drop below this level could lead to a deeper retracement towards the $3.0K–$2.9K liquidity cluster, aligning with the 200-day moving average and previous accumulation bases.
A closer look at the 4-hour chart reveals a descending wedge pattern following a sharp rejection from the $4.2K breakdown zone. Repeated rejections at this convergence of trendlines highlight the ongoing struggle between short-term buyers and sellers. The lower boundary of the wedge is situated near the broader institutional demand zone, indicating that Ethereum may be nearing a point of volatility expansion.
If Ethereum’s price breaks above the descending trendline and closes above the $4K–$4.1K resistance, it could signal a bullish reversal targeting $4.4K–$4.6K. Conversely, a decline below $3.7K may trigger further losses toward $3.4K, the zone crucial for maintaining the bullish structure. Until confirmation is achieved, Ethereum remains trapped within its range, fluctuating between supply and demand.
Recent on-chain data reflects a tightening market structure for Ethereum. Since mid-October, two crucial trends have emerged: a significant drop in exchange reserves and an increase in large whale transactions dominating average spot order sizes. Following October 15, Ethereum’s price has stabilized just under the $4K mark, but the market composition has shifted significantly. The rise in whale-sized spot orders signals renewed interest from influential investors, while the amount of Ethereum held on exchanges in USD terms has decreased to one of the lowest levels in 2025.
This trend, characterized by diminishing exchange reserves coupled with increased whale activity, historically signifies strategic accumulation by institutional or high-net-worth investors. With the thinning liquidity across exchanges, even moderate demand inflows could lead to amplified price movements, as the reduced sell-side availability enhances the potential for upward volatility.
As Ethereum appears to enter a supply squeeze phase reminiscent of the robust accumulation period in late 2020, the outcome will depend heavily on macroeconomic stability and any resurgence in ETF-related inflows. If these conditions hold, the current tightening in market structure may lay the groundwork for Ethereum’s next significant upward cycle, instilling a sense of optimism among investors and market participants.