As Hong Kong’s trading day opens, Ethereum is trading above 4,600, slipping about 3% on the session. The token has surged roughly 16% over the past week and about 45% in the past month, with the ETH/BTC ratio clearing above its 365-day moving average. That move has historically marked extended periods of ETH outperformance and is being amplified by spot ETF inflows.
But there are early signs of near-term cooling. CryptoQuant data shows daily ETH inflows to exchanges have surpassed Bitcoin’s, suggesting some holders may be locking in profits. ETH’s MVRV ratio against BTC has climbed from 0.4 in May to 0.8, nudging toward historically overvalued territory and signaling potential pauses or pullbacks in ETH’s relative strength. Trading desks also weigh in. FlowDesk notes that while ETH ETF inflows topped $1 billion on Monday with broad client buying versus BTC and SOL, there was a rise in call overwriting in ETH options at the $7,000–$8,000 strikes for December, implying some cap on upside.
Macro context is supportive but cautious. CryptoQuant’s take points to a strong macro backdrop—soft CPI signals and expectations for a September Fed rate cut, along with easing geopolitical tensions—yet upcoming Jackson Hole remarks and the slate of CPI/NFP prints leave sentiment vulnerable to shifts. Market-maker Enflux adds that a hotter-than-expected PPI reminder inflations risks remain, and ETH’s outsized rally could invite consolidation.
The structural drivers that have helped the rally—ETF demand, institutional participation, and favorable on-chain signals—remain intact, but the market may be entering a phase of stretched positioning and macro-event risk that could test momentum. In Crypto, the rally’s strength is paired with early profit-taking signals.
Market movers
– BTC: Fell more than 3% from record highs after hotter U.S. inflation tempered rate-cut expectations and the Treasury signaled it would not expand Bitcoin purchases for its strategic reserve.
– ETH: Down about 3.3% as traders take profits after a record rally.
– Gold: Declined roughly 0.6% to about $3,336.6 as hotter U.S. inflation and strong jobs data boosted the dollar and yields, trimming expectations for a large September Fed rate cut.
– Nikkei 225: Opened higher as Japan’s economy grew about 1.0% in Q2, aided by exports and capital spending, though analysts warn U.S. tariffs could slow growth ahead.
– S&P 500: Sidelined as hotter-than-expected PPI dampened hopes for a large September rate cut. Goldman Sachs warns of elevated odds of a near-term S&P 500 drop amid low volatility and tariff risks.
What to watch next
– Watch for CPI, PPI, and NFP updates in the coming weeks, plus any Fed commentary, for direction on risk assets and crypto correlations.
– Monitor ETH ETF inflows and on-chain metrics for signs of renewed demand versus profit-taking.
– Keep an eye on ETH options activity for any shifts in hedging and upside expectations.
Summary
Ethereum has extended its recent rally with strong weekly and monthly gains, supported by ETF demand and favorable on-chain signals. Yet traders are positioning for potential near-term consolidation amid inflation data, macro comments, and policy risk. The scene remains one of mixed momentum and upside potential, with macro catalysts likely to dictate the next leg of moves for ETH, BTC, and broader markets.
Positive takeaway
Despite the pullbacks and caution signals, the ongoing ETF inflows, institutional interest, and robust on-chain indicators suggest durable interest in Ethereum and continued market participation, which could help steadier, longer-term upside as macro conditions evolve.