MILAN — The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service has released a report indicating that Russia is unlikely to launch attacks against NATO member states in the next two years, a conclusion reflecting the significant defensive enhancements made by European nations in recent years. This assessment, however, does not dismiss the fact that Russia is expanding its military capabilities, particularly through the use of drones and ramped-up ammunition production, as it prepares for potential large-scale conflicts in the future.
The report asserts that while the current military threat level does not warrant panic, Moscow is rapidly fortifying its military strength in response to the security advances made by European countries. “Russia has no intention of militarily attacking Estonia or any other NATO state in 2026,” the report states. It suggests that this perspective will likely persist, as both Estonia and its European allies have introduced measures to ensure that the Kremlin carefully weighs the potential risks involved in any aggressive actions.
In contrast to the heightened warnings from NATO leaders in 2025 regarding an imminent Russian assault, Estonia’s latest analysis presents a more measured view. The report sheds light on the remarkable growth of Russia’s military-industrial complex, which, despite facing sanctions, has significantly expanded its production capabilities. Since 2021, artillery ammunition production has surged from 400,000 units to seven million, marking a seventeen-fold increase. In 2025 alone, Russia was estimated to have produced around 3.4 million artillery projectiles, alongside substantial quantities of ammunition for various military vehicles and systems.
Economic assessments indicate that last year’s ammunition procurement costs for Russia totaled approximately 1 trillion rubles (around $12.6 billion), a figure that remains relatively low compared to Western nations’ defense spending. Notably, procurement costs for certain models, such as older 152mm shells, are much lower than their 155mm counterparts produced in the West.
Another significant trend noted is Russia’s strategic pivot towards unmanned warfare, with a focus on incorporating drones into all branches of its military. The Estonian intelligence report warns that this adaptation means future conflicts could see the mass deployment of drones across air, land, and sea. The newly established unmanned naval strike units within the Russian Navy are poised to augment capabilities in the Baltic region and elsewhere.
In response to these developments, Estonia is enhancing its own unmanned systems capabilities. The country recently announced a significant investment of €11.4 million from the Nordic Investment Bank to establish a new drone technology unit at the Applied Research Centre in Tallinn, aimed at advancing the testing and production of aerial, land, and naval drones.
This proactive approach in bolstering defense technology reflects Estonia’s commitment to adapt and prepare for evolving military threats, even as the immediate risk of conflict with Russia appears diminished for the next few years. The situation highlights the ongoing importance of readiness and innovation in defense strategies within Europe.