Tensions between Beijing and Manila regarding the South China Sea disputes are expected to escalate, particularly following Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s recent midterm election support, according to maritime expert Wu Shicun. Wu, the founder of the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, highlighted concerns that increased provocations could lead to further confrontations in this geopolitically sensitive area.
At a seminar held in Beijing, Wu indicated that with the Philippines emerging as the “most prominent” rival claimant in the South China Sea, the situation is unlikely to calm anytime soon. He referenced Vietnam’s ongoing land reclamation activities in the Spratly Islands as an additional source of potential confrontation with China. His remarks coincided with the ninth anniversary of The Hague tribunal’s ruling, which dismissed China’s expansive territorial claims in the South China Sea as having “no legal basis,” a verdict that Beijing has continuously rejected.
Wu criticized the Philippines for attempting to “occupy” new maritime features and complicating disputes over key areas such as the Second Thomas Shoal, Sandy Cay, and Scarborough Shoal, where interactions between Chinese and Philippine vessels have escalated recently. He also pointed out the deployment of a US mid-range missile system in northern Philippines, describing it as a move that could “disrupt cross-strait peace.” This missile system, termed Typhon, marked its first overseas deployment in April 2024 during joint military exercises with the US and is now set to remain in the country indefinitely.
China has expressed strong opposition to the deployment, which enhances the Philippines’ military capabilities in the region and puts various parts of the South China Sea, Taiwan Strait, and even southern China within its strike range.
This situation showcases the complexities of regional security dynamics in the South China Sea. While the geopolitical landscape remains fraught with tensions, it is crucial for all parties involved to strive for diplomatic resolutions to avoid further escalation. Enhanced dialogue and cooperation could pave the way for a more stable and peaceful South China Sea.