Kalshi and Polymarket have surged to the top of the Apple App Store’s free app rankings as of Tuesday, highlighting a growing trend in election-related betting as the 2024 U.S. presidential campaign draws to a close. Kalshi, which operates within U.S. legal regulations and is open to American users, claimed the first spot, while Polymarket, available to international bettors, secured second place.
Both platforms indicate a strong belief in former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Electoral College—Kalshi shows favorable odds of 57% for Trump and 43% for his opponent, while Polymarket presents even higher odds of 62% for Trump and 38% for rival candidates. Conversely, Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to win the popular vote with odds of 76% to 24% on Kalshi and 72% to 28% on Polymarket.
The rapid rise of Kalshi reflects a significant milestone for its CEO, Tarek Mansour, who expressed his ambitions to capture the number one spot across the entire App Store by Election Day, noting an exponential increase in demand. In terms of the financial stakes involved, Polymarket leads with over $4 billion in bets placed on various election contracts, compared to Kalshi’s $500 million.
The momentum behind these apps, particularly in the context of a tightly contested election, points to a heightened interest in political betting, a phenomenon that could shape the landscape of how elections are perceived and engaged with by the public.
As the electoral process unfolds, the insights from Kalshi and Polymarket could reflect broader sentiments among voters and bettors alike, potentially providing a unique lens through which to view the upcoming elections. This trend underlines the intersection of technology, finance, and political participation, and emphasizes the evolving nature of how citizens engage with political events in real-time.
In summary, the significant rise of Kalshi and Polymarket in app download rankings underscores a greater interest in political engagement through betting, reflecting a blend of technology and democratic processes that may reshape how future elections are approached.