Recent research indicates that the Tintina fault in the Yukon, Canada, which has been dormant for approximately 12,000 years, may possess the potential to generate significant earthquakes, specifically those exceeding a magnitude of 7.5. This new insight raises concerns about the seismic risks in the region, particularly for small communities nearby.
Geoscientist Theron Finley, who conducted the study while obtaining his doctorate from the University of Victoria, revealed that the Tintina fault has accumulated considerable strain over the past 2.6 million years. The study, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, sheds light on the fault’s behavior, suggesting that a substantial quake could occur within a human lifespan.
Stretching over 620 miles (1,000 kilometers) from northeast British Columbia through the Yukon and into Alaska, the Tintina fault has remained largely inactive since the end of the last ice age. Historical data shows the fault’s sides moved significantly during the Eocene epoch, yet today’s activity is limited to minor earthquakes of magnitude 3 to 4.
Using advanced satellite data and lidar imagery, Finley and his team identified geological features that indicate past seismic activity. Their analysis revealed that the fault has built up roughly 20 feet (6 meters) of strain without experiencing a major earthquake in the last 12,000 years. The team is exploring the question of whether the fault’s accumulated strain could soon lead to a rupture, understanding that predictions regarding timing remain challenging.
While the Tintina fault is currently quiet, experts acknowledge its past tectonic activity, noting that assessing the region’s risk of larger earthquakes is crucial. Peter Haeussler, a senior geologist at the U.S. Geological Survey, expressed support for the findings, as they contribute to understanding the seismic hazards in the area, particularly for the town of Dawson City, which has a population of around 1,600.
To further evaluate the risk, geoscientists plan to excavate trenches in the fault to examine rock layers that record previous earthquakes, helping to establish a clearer timeline for seismic events.
This research presents a mix of caution and opportunity. While it highlights potential hazards, it also emphasizes the importance of ongoing geological study to improve safety and preparedness in seismic regions. Understanding these dynamics can enhance community resilience and promote more effective emergency planning in the Yukon.