A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend of people without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 drugs, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. The researchers caution that this shift may lead to shortages of these important treatments.
GLP-1 medications function by mimicking a hormone that controls blood sugar levels and suppresses appetite. Initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded the approval of GLP-1 treatments, including Wegovy, for weight loss in 2021.
Since then, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, leading manufacturers of GLP-1 drugs like Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, are struggling to produce sufficient quantities to meet the increasing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other organizations examined medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicate that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023, while the proportion of new users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that this trend reflects a significant public health shift as more healthcare providers recognize the benefits of these medications for addressing obesity. However, Yeo expressed concern regarding potential medication shortages and the necessity for ongoing access for patients with diabetes.
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, although the data may not be fully representative of the national population.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight. The surge in sales has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies. However, this high demand has complicated prescription fulfillment for some patients, leading both companies to invest heavily in increasing their production capacities.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with projections indicating that around 31.5 million people in the U.S., or approximately 9% of the population, may adopt these treatments by 2035.