A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a concerning trend: the proportion of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are on the decline.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that helps control blood sugar levels and decreases appetite, were initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, the FDA also approved Wegovy for weight loss in 2021, leading to heightened demand for these medications. Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are currently struggling to keep up with this demand for drugs like Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans who visited a healthcare provider between 2011 and 2023. Their findings revealed that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dipped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. In contrast, the share of new users without type 2 diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, highlighted that while more healthcare professionals recognize the benefits of these drugs for obesity treatment—a significant public health development—there are rising concerns about potential medication shortages and ensuring continued access for diabetes patients.
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not accurately reflect national trends. Over recent years, GLP-1 medications have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, with users able to lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The surge in sales of GLP-1 drugs has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the increased demand has also led to difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies have made significant investments to increase production of these drugs.
Analysts from Morgan Stanley predict that the global market for GLP-1 medications could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate of approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S.—nearly 9% of the population—by 2035.