A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a significant increase in the number of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications, even as new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This trend raises concerns about potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and curbs appetite, were initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, the FDA expanded their use in 2021 by approving the drug Wegovy for weight loss. Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are currently facing challenges in keeping up with the surging demand for these medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records of 45 million Americans from 2011 to 2023. They discovered that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes plummeted from nearly 90% in 2019 to above 70% in 2023. Conversely, the share of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Co-first author Yee Hui Yeo emphasized that this shift indicates a growing recognition among healthcare providers of the benefits these medications offer for obesity treatment. However, this trend also underscores the critical need to ensure that diabetes patients continue to have access to these essential therapies.
The research utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent national demographics. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their weight-loss benefits, reportedly helping users shed as much as 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales of these drugs have positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk as leading pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the heightened demand has created difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. In response, both companies have invested substantial resources to enhance their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 medications could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate of around 31.5 million people in the U.S.—approximately 9% of the population—by 2035.