The proportion of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining, according to a study released on Tuesday in the Annals of Internal Medicine.
Researchers have expressed concerns regarding potential shortages of these drugs. GLP-1 medications are designed to imitate a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar levels and decrease appetite. Initially approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded approval in 2021 for the GLP-1 treatment Wegovy for weight management.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in producing sufficient quantities of GLP-1 drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, due to the surging demand for these treatments.
The study, conducted by Cedars-Sinai Medical Center researchers among others, analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans who visited a healthcare provider between 2011 and 2023. Findings revealed that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to just over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while those without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the advantages of these medications for treating obesity, marking a significant shift in public health,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “However, this also raises concerns regarding potential drug shortages and highlights the necessity to ensure diabetes patients have continued access to these treatments.”
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not reflect the national landscape accurately.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, aiding users in losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The surge in sales has positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk among the most valuable pharmaceutical firms globally. Nonetheless, this increased demand has created difficulties for some patients in securing their prescriptions. Both companies have committed billions to enhance their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for these drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an anticipated adoption involving approximately 31.5 million individuals in the U.S.—around 9% of the population—by 2035.