A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals an increasing trend of non-diabetic individuals being prescribed GLP-1 drugs, while new prescriptions for people with diabetes are declining. Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor from 2011 to 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. In contrast, the proportion of non-diabetic new users rose from 10% to 25%.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and reduces appetite, were originally approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, the FDA broadened their use in 2021 to include weight loss. Following this development, manufacturers like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have struggled to produce sufficient quantities of these medications, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to meet the surge in demand.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, highlighted the significant public health shift as more healthcare providers recognize the advantages of these medications in treating obesity. Nevertheless, this trend raises alarm about potential treatment shortages, emphasizing the need for continued access for diabetes patients.
The increasing popularity of GLP-1 drugs stems from their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight. The surge in sales has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become two of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally, while their success has resulted in difficulties for some patients in obtaining prescriptions. Both companies are heavily investing in production to address the high demand.
Morgan Stanley forecasts that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030 and predict that approximately 31.5 million Americans, around 9% of the population, may adopt these medications by 2035.