A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the number of people without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for individuals with diabetes are declining. Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans who visited doctors between 2011 and 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. Conversely, the proportion of new users without type 2 diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone responsible for blood sugar regulation and appetite reduction, were initially approved for type 2 diabetes treatment. However, in 2021, the FDA approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss, contributing to its rising popularity. This surge has led to significant challenges for manufacturers like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, which struggle to meet the growing demand for these medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
The authors of the study expressed concern over potential shortages of these medications, emphasizing the importance of ensuring continuous access for diabetes patients. The study relied on data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not accurately reflect national trends.
The popularity of GLP-1 drugs, known for their appetite-suppressing effects, has resulted in substantial sales growth, propelling Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become some of the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical firms. However, the increased demand has made it difficult for some patients to fill their prescriptions, prompting both companies to invest heavily in boosting production.
Analysts from Morgan Stanley predict that the global market for these drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate of approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S. by 2035, equating to about 9% of the population.