A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the number of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for diabetic patients are declining. This trend may lead to potential shortages of these treatments, according to the authors of the study.
GLP-1 drugs function by imitating a hormone that controls blood sugar levels and reduces appetite. Initially approved for the management of type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded their use in 2021 to include weight loss management, with Wegovy gaining approval for this purpose.
As demand surges, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in producing adequate supplies of GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited doctors between 2011 and 2023. They discovered that the proportion of new GLP-1 users diagnosed with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the percentage of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Co-first author of the study Yee Hui Yeo stated, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, signaling a significant public health shift. However, it raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the necessity to ensure that patients with diabetes have continued access to these treatments.”
The study utilized data from healthcare software firm TriNetX, which may not fully represent the national landscape.
In recent years, GLP-1 medications have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The rising sales of these drugs have turned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk into some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally, but high demand has made it difficult for certain patients to fulfill their prescriptions. Both companies are investing billions to increase production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate of around 31.5 million individuals in the U.S., equivalent to approximately 9% of the population, by 2035.