A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend where an increasing number of individuals without diabetes are being prescribed GLP-1 drugs, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This development has raised concerns about potential shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs, which emulate a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and curb appetite, were initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes. In 2021, the FDA expanded their approval to include Wegovy for weight loss. Since then, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in producing sufficient quantities of GLP-1 drugs, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to meet the growing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records of 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor visit between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicate that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. Conversely, the proportion of new GLP-1 users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, commented, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, representing a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the need to ensure that patients with diabetes still have access to these treatments.”
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent the national landscape.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained immense popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects and have shown the capability of helping users lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The surging sales of these medications have elevated Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, this high demand has resulted in difficulties for certain patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies have invested billions to increase their production capacities.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley predict the global market for these drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate of approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S. by 2035, accounting for around 9% of the population.