A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the proportion of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications is on the rise, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. Researchers warn that this trend could lead to potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and curtail appetite, were initially approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA expanded approval for GLP-1 medication Wegovy for weight loss purposes.
As demand for these medications continues to grow, both pharmaceutical companies Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are struggling to keep up with production of GLP-1 treatments such as Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
The research team from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, along with other institutions, analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor visit between 2011 and 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the proportion of new GLP-1 users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Co-first author Yee Hui Yeo commented on the findings, noting that this trend indicates a growing recognition among healthcare providers of the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, marking a significant shift in public health. However, she also expressed concern regarding the implications for medication shortages and the accessibility of these treatments for diabetes patients.
The study primarily used data from healthcare software firm TriNetX, which may not represent the entire nation.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their ability to suppress appetite, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight. This surge in sales has catapulted Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the top ranks among the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies, although the high demand has led to difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies are currently investing billions to increase their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an anticipated adoption rate of around 31.5 million people in the U.S.—approximately 9% of the population—by 2035.